New analysis from the International Longevity Centre (ILC) and Bayes Business School reveals alarming disparities in life expectancy and health outcomes among adults aged over 50 in the UK, with significant implications for public health and the economy. Following yesterday’s publication of the Darzi report, the ILC calls for urgent action to address these inequalities and improve overall well-being.

After six decades of continuous improvement, life expectancy in the UK has plateaued. According to the analysis:

• the life expectancy of those aged 50 and above is now 2.3 years lower than previously projected based on long-term trends.

This stalling of life expectancy has profound consequences for public health.

• On average, a one-year reduction in life expectancy corresponds to a 2.5-year decrease in healthy life years.
• For instance, a man in the UK who dies at 80 could expect to spend around 64.5 years in good health. However, if his life expectancy drops to 78, he is likely to experience fewer than 60 years of good health.

The impact of this health crisis is felt unevenly across the country.

• In the least healthy local authorities, the gap between healthy life expectancy and overall life expectancy for men is as wide as 21 years.
• In the healthiest areas, this gap narrows to just 10 years—highlighting a stark, two-fold difference.

The disparity is most pronounced between the ages of 60 and 64, a critical period when many people wish to continue working but are forced to leave the workforce due to poor health.

According to ONS figures:

• A man in Blackpool will spend on average just 53.5 years in good health while in Rutland male healthy life expectancy is 74.7 years.
• And the number of years a woman can expect to live in good health ranges from 75 in the Orkney Islands to 55.3 in Blackpool.

The ILC’s findings show that the UK is one of only four major countries where life expectancy has stalled. In contrast, 11 out of 17 advanced economies saw an increase in life expectancy at age 50 between 2010 and 2020.

The report highlights a need for greater investment in jobs, skills, and healthier lifestyles earlier in life. It argues for increased spending on preventive measures and stronger regulation of harmful products and behaviours to tackle the root causes of poor health.

The demographic imbalance in the UK is stark. Of the 31.5 million people of working age, 2.8 million are unable to work due to long-term illness. At the same time, gaps in the labour market are being filled by record levels of net migration, which has risen to 700,000 per annum compared to 200,000 in 2012. With the median age of the population projected to rise from 38 to 41 by 2040, the situation is likely to deteriorate further before it improves.

Professor Les Mayhew, Associate Head of Global Research at the International Longevity Centre and Professor of Statistics at Bayes Business School City St George’s, University of London, commented:

“The UK is grappling with a population health crisis. We’re living longer but in many places reversing the improvements in health we’ve seen over the past decades. And the evidence suggests things will get worse before they improve.

“We need to be bold if we are to tackle this health divide. It’s not inevitable. But to turn this around, we need to better target services at communities and age groups that need them most. We need to invest more in preventing the things that do us harm – and we need much stronger regulation to make sure the healthy choices become the easy choices.”

Ends

Contacts

ILC – Press@ilcuk.org.uk or +44 (0) 7736 124 096. Spokespeople are available on request.

Notes

These findings will be presented by Professor Les Mayhew, Associate Head of Global Research at the International Longevity Centre UK (ILC) and Professor of Statistics at Bayes Business School at the Longevity 19 Conference to be held in Amsterdam on 16 – 17 September 2024.

The ILC has today published a blog based on Professor Mayhew’s findings:

The impact of good health on productive years, life expectancy and the economy – ILCUK

These figures were also highlighted by Channel 4 News on Thursday 12 September 2024 Channel 4 News – Series 2024: Episode 256 | Channel 4 

Sources

ONS data life expectancies and healthy life expectancies for upper tier local authorities in England (2018-2020)

Health and life expectancies – Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk)

Health state life expectancies in England, Northern Ireland and Wales – Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk)

Life Expectancy by Local Authority – Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk)

ILC evidence to The Times Health Commission (report published February 2024)

ILC One hundred not out: A route map for long lives (December 2023)

ILC’s Healthy Ageing and Prevention Index

 “Time for long-term politics” – ILC’s five priorities for a new government – ILCUK

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We offer transformational education which teaches our students how to think, but also how to make a difference. We conduct cutting-edge research which transforms knowledge, but also changes practice.

Throughout our history we have produced generations of business leaders, provided new insights into the way business works, and transformed business practice. Bayes is consistently ranked among the leading business schools in the world. These achievements are testament to the excellence of our faculty and the quality of our students and our alumni.

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