A sense of complacency has already set in since the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. In his blog Patrick Swain, ILC’s Research and Development Manager, argues why political parties needs to outline their plans for the next pandemic ahead of the 2024 election.

With the UK general election fast approaching, the main political parties have been out on the doorstep and all over the media trying to convince us, the electorate, why they should represent us in the next Parliament.

Since 2019, the political landscape has shifted dramatically, both domestically and overseas. The COVID-19 pandemic was arguably the most defining event of any government in the post-war era. We are all too familiar with the impact of the pandemic and lockdown measures on our families, workplaces, and societies. In December 2019, no one could have imagined that three months later, the UK Government would have to pivot its policy agenda so dramatically.

This unprecedented health emergency, and the response to it, shifted the paradigm of UK policymaking. All governments were made acutely aware of the social, economic and health threats posed by pandemics. Now more than ever, they should take the prospect of another global health crisis more seriously.

But that’s not to say they’ll get it right next time around. A sense of complacency has already set in since the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. The desire to return to “normality” and putting the pandemic behind us, while understandable, has meant we may have forgotten the mistakes that were made during the initial COVID-19 outbreak.

Ahead of the 2024 election, political parties should outline their plans for the next pandemic. This is a case of not if, but rather when.[1] With bird flu now being recorded in cows for the first time in the US,[2] there is a real possibility of novel viruses passing from animals to humans. Recently, the UK’s former chief scientist, Sir Patrick Vallance, has argued that the UK is not ready for another pandemic, urging the next government to implement “better surveillance to be able to pick these things up”.[3]

While the UK is a world-leader in monitoring and disease profiling, the lack of urgency in response to initial COVID-19 surveillance reports in early 2020 proved to be a failure of not taking decisive action. As Professor Devi Sridhar highlights in her book, Preventable, UK political and health leaders had only prepared for a flu outbreak without consideration for other types of pathogens. Simply applying these preparations to a novel coronavirus like COVID-19 – a disease similar in symptoms but very different in the way it spreads – led to adverse and costly outcomes.

While we were building a clearer evidence base on COVID-19, the response was slow, inefficient, and for too many people, ineffective. The next government needs must not only learn from the mistakes of the COVID-19 response, but adequately prepare by investing in our healthcare systems and preventative measures to curb the spread of a novel disease.

Effective pandemic preparation must be a key health priority of any future government. To achieve this, they should invest more in health prevention, increase access to healthcare services, and utilise new and existing technologies. In doing so, there is a real opportunity for the UK to not only improve its pandemic preparedness, but to improve the overall health of its citizens. We know the costs of being unprepared – from the direct impact on people’s physical health to the effect of lockdowns on mental wellbeing, and the long-term economic consequences – so getting it right for next time is crucial.

1. Invest, promote, and take action on prevention

The next UK government needs to recognise the value of prevention and put its money where its mouth is, by investing consistently and sustainably to prevent ill health. The old adage, “prevention is better than cure”, is reflected in the findings of our Healthy Ageing and Prevention Index. Countries that spend more on preventative healthcare and immunisation perform better when it comes to healthy ageing and longevity.

We know that countries such as Canada, who spend around 6% of their healthcare budget on prevention, have seen dramatic improvements in health outcomes over the past two decades. For example, since 2000, Canada has seen an increase in life expectancy from 79 to 82.1 years, as well as a steady decrease in its avoidable mortality rate from 150 per 100,000 citizens in 2000 to 116 per 100,000 in 2017.[4] In 2021, during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, EU Member States spent an average of 6% of their health budgets on prevention.[5] While primarily spent on vaccination programmes, this demonstrates what is possible in the right circumstances – we can dedicate more of a nation’s healthcare spend on preventative measures rather than cure.

Keeping the UK in good health and investing in the long-term wellbeing of the nation will be key to ensuring a better response to any future pandemics. Building health resilience and investing in our healthcare system will be crucial to preventing the health, social and economic impacts of a novel disease. Spending at least 6% of the NHS’s budget should be the goal if we want to create a healthcare system that’s ready to respond to a major public health crisis. If the UK invested in the short-term, the long-term health gains would be invaluable: reaching 6% would require a £2.7 billion investment – just 4.5% of the Department of Health and Social Care’s £60 billion budget for COVID-19 measures.

2. Democratise access to prevention to reduce health inequalities

The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the stark inequalities in health access and outcomes across our society. Disparities in the risk and outcomes from COVID-19 (including race, ethnicity, age, occupation, and level of deprivation)[6] highlight the vast inequalities that exist in British society.

The next government needs to ensure there is adequate and equitable access to healthcare services across the UK. This includes providing access to preventative services such as immunisation and screening. The UK was successful in delivering vaccination during the pandemic partly because of the geographical ease of being able to get a vaccine: thousands of vaccine centres were set up in England, meaning around 98% of people lived within 10 miles of a vaccination clinic.[7] Prioritising ease of access for other routine vaccinations such as that for flu and pneumococcal disease must be a priority for future health planning.

The establishment of community diagnostic centres (CDCs) throughout England is a way preventative services such as immunisation could be better delivered. CDCs deliver other services like screening and routine check-ups. The aim of CDCs is to reduce health inequalities by ensuring everyone has the same access to care in their local area.[8] Continuing to place these preventative health services at the heart of all communities will help to reduce inequalities and disparities in health outcomes so that people of all ages and stages of life are in the best health possible.

3. Using technology effectively

Finally, the next UK government needs to ensure that technology is being utilised to deliver prevention. Novel innovations will need to be developed, well-funded, and rolled out if we are to tackle future pandemics.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the vaccination dashboard was used effectively to understand gaps in uptake and identify where targeted responses were needed. COVID-19 monitoring also allowed people to understand where higher cases of the disease were in the community, helping people to plan their activities around the prevalence of COVID-19. Furthermore, the development of the NHS app to book a COVID-19 vaccine was a success story; it showed that it is possible to develop digital health application to drive preventative healthcare services. We need to ensure the value of these digital technologies do not go unnoticed and continue to develop them so that people have access to a multitude of services at a touch of a button.

When it comes to future pandemics, investment in novel vaccination will be necessary to ensure we have the quickest and most effective response to any disease that appears. The success of mRNA means these technologies could be applied to vaccination for other diseases such as flu, and even some cancers. Any future government needs to invest in the research and development of these vaccines and new technologies to make sure we have a range of preventative measures in our arsenal.

What happens next?

Whoever wins the 2024 general election, prevention should be at the front and centre of any future government’s health agenda. We know that prevention is better than cure. In an ageing society, it is vital that we invest in prevention to protect people’s health and create a healthier, more resilient population. With all the uncertainties in the world, COVID-19 has taught us one thing is for certain: we cannot afford to take pandemics for granted and remain complacent. When the next pandemic hits, we need to be in a stronger position than we were last time. To do this, we need to invest more in prevention, provide better access to preventative healthcare services, and develop novel ways of protecting population health.

References

[1] https://www.emro.who.int/pandemic-epidemic-diseases/news/the-next-flu-pandemic-a-matter-of-when-not-if.html

[2] https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/mammals.htm

[3] https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/article/2024/may/25/another-pandemic-is-absolutely-inevitable-says-patrick-vallance-covid

[4] https://ilcuk.org.uk/money-talks/

[5] https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/web/products-eurostat-news/w/ddn-20240523-2

[6]https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/908434/Disparities_in_the_risk_and_outcomes_of_COVID_August_2020_update.pdf

[7] https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-marks-one-year-since-deploying-worlds-first-covid-19-vaccine

[8] https://www.hee.nhs.uk/our-work/cancer-diagnostics/community-diagnostic-centres-cdc

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