By Prof Les Mayhew

In recognition of the Queen’s Platinum Jubilee on Sunday, 6 February 2022, this blog looks at the demographic changes in UK society over the 70 years since Her Majesty’s accession, and what we can expect from the future.

Born in 1926, the Queen is in her 96th year and has served as the UK’s and Commonwealth’s monarch and Head of State since 1952. The length of her reign is unmatched in the modern era, being even longer than that of Queen Victoria, her great-grandmother. She has reigned through countless periods of celebration and crisis, and worked with 15 prime ministers; the first being Winston Churchill.

More than 5 in 6 Britons have never known another Head of State. And only 0.15% of the UK population is older than the Queen (approximately 100,000 people), although 6 million people alive today should have vivid memories of her coronation.(1) Around the world, ships, schools, hospitals, sporting events and awards, monuments and sculptures all bear her name – even a mountain range. Postage stamps bear her image. Her presence is such a common part of normal life that we take it for granted.

How has the UK changed over 70 years?

While the UK’s Head of State has remained the same since 1952, society has not. Back then, the UK population was almost entirely white; today around 15% are Black, Asian, or from other ethnic minorities. The country has transformed from being virtually of one single religious faith to multi-faith and seen a big increase in people without a religion; up from 1% of the population in 1952 to 20% today.

People today also live much longer. A man born in 1952 could expect to live to age 79 while a man born today can expect to live an additional 12 years, to the age of 91. Similarly, a woman born in 1952 could expect to live to 83. 70 years on, a woman born in 2022 can expect to live to 94z

We are also having fewer children. The fertility rate has decreased from 2.2 in 1952 to 1.6 today. Meanwhile, marriage has been going out of fashion and we are getting married later. Among those aged under 30, married people are now in the minority. Marriage rates have plummeted from 68 per thousand for men and 51 per thousand for women to fewer than 20 per thousand for both cases in 2022. The average age of marriage for single men and women has also increased from 26 to 34 and from 24 to 32.

But despite lower birth rates, our population has continued to grow through a combination of longer lives, earlier baby booms and migration. The UK population today is 67.8m as compared with 50.4m in 1952. This 34% increase compares with a workforce at 34m, which is around 50% higher in 2022 than in 1952 thanks to more women having entered the workforce, but also fewer people needing to take time off work caring for children.

The contribution of migration has varied, with large influxes during the 1950s from Commonwealth countries and much later from the EU. Net annual migration (the difference between immigrants and emigrants) was negative from the early 1960s to 1982 but then turned strongly positive after 2000 with levels reaching 300k+ a year but these are now pegging back.

Gross domestic product (GDP), the main economic measure of how well the economy is performing, has increased 5-fold over the period of the Queen’s reign and GDP/head – a measure of income – has increased 3.5-fold. However, as the global economy has grown, the UK’s share of world trade has shrunk with manufacturing for example declining from 15% of world trade to less than 3%.

What lies ahead?

However, the future is not altogether rosy in UK plc. There are demographic dangers ahead that will dominate Charles’s reign and the political agenda for years to come. In 1952, there were 5.5. people of working age to one person aged 65+. In 2022, this ratio has shrunk to 3.3 whilst UK population projections suggest it could fall to 2.3 by 2040, putting huge strain on the economy due to a shortage of workers.

A second issue, partly related to the first, are the widening inequalities between rich and poor, which is already impacting on politics. ILC/Bayes research finds that male adults in the bottom 5% of areas have much shorter working lives, and 12 fewer years in good health than those in the top 5% but with a gap in life span of less than 5 years.(2)

To put it another way, whereas 85.5% of the population reach state pension age of 66, only 53% do so in good health.(3) Unless the health of the population improves, the fact that life expectancy is increasing will tend to trap those in poor health in a miserable future dependent on a depleted and under-resourced health and care system.

This is definitely not the kind of legacy the Queen would want to leave behind or remembered for. Meanwhile, we celebrate her fantastic life and wish her the best for the remaining time of her reign. Her husband Prince Philip lived just 60 days shy of his 100th birthday, while her mother died in her 102nd year, which argues well for the future of her reign.

References

1. The longevity of the Royal Family – a tale of two dynasties
2. The costs of inequality – Putting a price on health
3. Not ‘if’ but ‘when’ – rises in state pension age

Sources of information: Office for National Statistics (ONS), Bank of England, Gallup