By Patrick Swain

• Discontinuing with preventative health strategies risks further mutations and taking us back to square one.
• Communication hasn’t informed people about how vaccines work, with many thinking the COVID-19 vaccine is an outright cure.
• Clinically extremely vulnerable people are now at an even greater risk and have been overlooked.

For many people in England, 19 July couldn’t have come soon enough. With the government going ahead and lifting all major COVID-19 restrictions, today marks the start of a return to some form of normality: a life without masks, social distancing and other measures to keep coronavirus at bay.

But what does this really mean for the future of the pandemic in the UK? As it stands, COVID-19 cases are on the rise, with newly appointed Health Secretary, Sajid Javid, acknowledging that there could be as many as 100,000 per day by August.(1) Other reports have also suggested there could be up to 200 deaths per day over the summer.(2) If these projections are right, then why are we acting so fast to remove all measures?

In the Government’s view, vaccines are doing their job. Compared to previous waves, deaths and hospitalisations have not aligned with cases. But while vaccines give us reasons to be optimistic, there is still a need to be pragmatic. Acting too quickly without taking any further precautions will enable COVID-19 to spread further and mutate – taking us back to square one and placing more pressure on our health services.

False narratives about how vaccines work also appear to have distorted people’s understanding of COVID-19. To a large degree, there has been a lack of education about what vaccines do – many people regard them as a cure, rather than a tool to prevent serious infection. As such, some might be quick to believe that once vaccinated, the disease cannot be spread and that there will be no more COVID-19. Such false pretences have been manifested through poor government communication, giving people greater belief that the measures being taken today will be okay.

In terms of these measures, the decision to remove mandatory face coverings in public spaces is one which has received particular criticism. Although masks will continue to be mandatory in Wales, Scotland and on TfL services in London, they are no longer a requirement in England. And while there has been a mixed response, with one minister saying the Government still expects masks to be worn in many indoor settings after July 19(3), removing the mandate removes the need for collective action. Common sense and individual choice alone will not be enough to prevent the spread of COVID-19.

The Government’s decision on mandatory face coverings is just one example of where prevention measures are being overlooked. The same can be said for the messaging on washing hands and the need for social distancing, both of which are more likely to reduce COVID-19(4) without increasing costs or demand for the NHS. Once again, health prevention has become an afterthought during this pandemic, with decision-making focusing more on “getting back to normal”, rather than attempting to resolve health crises through cost-effective means.

Discontinuing with these protocols will inevitably lead to the exclusion of a number of groups in society too. With an ageing population, removing prevention measures could deter some older people from going out into public spaces. As older people are at a higher risk of severe complications from COVID-19(5), there is a clear need to ensure public settings are accommodating for older consumers. Given that 54% (£319 billion) of total consumer spending in the UK being made by over-50s(6), making sure our shops and high streets are safe will be key to unlocking the longevity dividend in a post-COVID recovery. This will only be achieved if there are COVID-secure measure in place which protect workers and consumers alike.

Those at-risk and clinically extremely vulnerable (CEV) have also been overlooked today. While millions of people will enjoy the new freedoms, millions of others in clinical risk groups will be anxious about the weeks ahead. Although vaccine uptake has been high among at-risk and CEV people (around 78% and 91% fully vaccinated respectively)(7), questions remain about the effectiveness of vaccines in these groups. New studies have suggested that immunocompromised individuals may fail to produce any immune response to the vaccine whatsoever.(8) Given this, it is vital that preventative measures are taken to best protect the most medically vulnerable in society. But instead, the government has advised CEV people to avoid indoor meetings and those who have not been fully vaccinated, stopping short of asking them to shield once again.(9) This advice alone is not enough to safeguard those who are most at-risk from COVID-19.

Whatever happens next, one thing is for certain – COVID-19 is going to take a long time to disappear, and we will have to learn to live with it. But even then, we need to be careful. We cannot simply expect to live with COVID-19 in the short-term without using measures to keep cases down, hospitalisations at a minimum and protect the most vulnerable people in society. The steps being taken today will not fix the pandemic and are likely going to only exacerbate them.

There can be no return to normality without being patient, pragmatic and precautious. While the past 18 months have been challenging, there will be a bigger price to pay on people’s health and longevity if we do not continue taking decisive measures to combat this pandemic. Until the vaccination programme is complete(10), we should all consider continuing with preventative measures, such as social distancing and wearing face coverings, not only to help protect ourselves individually, but to also protect others and the NHS too.

References

1.  Financial Times (2021) UK Covid cases may soar to 100,000 a day, Sajid Javid warns
2. ITV News (2021) Covid: Third wave could see up to 200 deaths and 2,000 hospitalisations each day as rules are eased
3. BBC News (2021) Covid-19: Masks still expected to be worn indoors after 19 July – Zahawi
4. Cabinet Office, Department of Health & Social Care (2021) Face coverings: when to wear one, exemptions, and how to make your own
5. Office for National Statistics (2021) Coronavirus (COVID-19) latest insights: Hospitals
6. International Longevity Centre UK (ILC) (2019) Maximising the longevity dividend
7. NHS England (2021) COVID-19 Vaccinations
8. WBUR News (2021) Protecting The Immuno-Compromised Against COVID Could Be Key To Ending The Pandemic
9. inews.co.uk (2021) Clinically extremely vulnerable people told to avoid unvaccinated and meet people outside as Covid cases surge
10. Completion should be considered as 70%-90% of all people (adults and children) with two vaccine doses.

Notes

Find out more about ILC’s Delivering prevention in an ageing world programme, which seeks to encourage Government’s across the world to invest in preventative health and tackle inequalities in access to health, here.