A statistic that will surprise no-one made headlines again this week: birth projections continue to trend downwards. We have seen it before and, no doubt, we will see it again. But why are falling birthrates back in the news this time?  

Traditionally stories surrounding the declining number of newborns are linked to its impact on the economy, workforce planning and the care sector. This week however BBC InDepth chose to shine a light on the broader aspects dropping birthrates are having (and will continue to have) on other government and social services, namely education. 

Since 2020 the Department of Education has published figures on the expected number of children in state education up to, and including, 2032 in England. Yet its most recent figures have one key differential. They only go up to 2028.  

‘Uncertainty in longer-term fertility assumptions’ thanks to lower births rates between September 2022 and August 2023 has caused the Department to pull back on predicting pupil numbers to 2028, considering it now too far in advance.  

The figures show the numbers for state nursery and primary school pupils for 2028 are down by 207,000. Separately, 2026 and 2027 are projected to see the largest number of state secondary school pupils before a decline begins there too. 

The lack of future students in our education system will be felt across the board. In short, fewer pupils means lower funding for our schools. With numbers already in decline the anticipated further 4.5% drop over the next four years will have an enormous impact on a school’s bottom line.  

Staffing and resourcing, maintenance and the ability to provide free lunches will all come into question, particularly for our smaller schools already struggling. Lower numbers have already pushed schools to close across Brighton and Hove. 

Of course, the United Kingdom is far from the only country in the world experiencing a declining birth rate. Just last week, KPMG Australia analysis showed the country is in similar repopulation strife. The number of births in 2023 was the lowest since 2006 with just 239,100 babies born – a significant drop from the recent highs of 2021 where 315,200 babies were born post-lockdown.  

Australia’s capital cities have taken the greatest hit. Births in Sydney are down 8.6 per cent from 2019, followed by Melbourne with a 7.3 per cent drop, then Perth down 6.0 per cent and Brisbane down 4.3 per cent.  

While two-child families remain the most common family size, more people are choosing to have children later in life and fewer people are choosing to start having families altogether. In the UK, only 44 per cent of women born in 1993 have had one or more children by age 30. This is a stark comparison to those born in 1965 (their mother’s generation) with 58 per cent and those in 1938 (their grandmother’s generation) with 81 per cent.  

Of course, declining birthrates cannot be looked at in isolation of migration. Without migration, a birthrate of 2.1 is required to maintain a constant population size. In the UK, net migration made up 60% of population growth from 2004 to 2022; however the estimated fertility rate of foreign-born women living in England or Wales dropped to below the ‘replacement rate’ to 2.03 in 2021 and for UK-born women the rate is even lower at just 1.54. 

The impact of the cost-of-living and the housing crises could also be a reason for dropping rates across the UK, as well as the impact on wages when parents wish to work and must pay enormous childcare costs to do so. 

As we see the knock-on, tangible effects of lower birth rates on the education system, it’s time for governments and businesses to pivot from focusing solely on workforce planning and begin to really look under the bonnet at the significant impact this demographic shift will have on their industries and communities. For example, for developers and councils, it could mean a reduced number of schools or larger homes built in new housing developments. In the auto industry it could see a market shift away from the ‘traditional’ family car; or for those planning public transport routes, fewer school route services.  

With population growth unlikely to bounce back to pre-1970s levels, we can expect that sluggish birth rates will remain for years to come. If we want to grow and shift our society, we need to plan not just for the impacts an ageing population will have on the economy, workforce planning and care sector. Policy responses need to broaden, projected changes need to be identified and accounted for, and adaptation needs to start globally across all industries immediately, rather than in five, ten or twenty years’ time.  

That is unless we’re willing to take bold action to adapt to longevity and the changing demography we are likely to see in coming decades. 

Isabelle Gillespie